The future of FMCG

The future of FMCG:

Fast moving consumer goods will become a Rs 400,000-crore industry by 2020. A Booz & Company study finds out the trends that will shape its future

Consider this. The anti-ageing skincare category grew five times between 2007 and 2008. It’s today the fastest-growing segment in the skincare market. Olay, Procter & Gamble’s premium anti-ageing skincare brand, captured 20 per cent of the market within a year of its launch in 2007 and today dominates it with 37 per cent share. Who could have thought of ready acceptance for anti-ageing creams and lotions some ten years ago? For that matter, who could have thought Indian consumers would take oral hygiene so seriously? Mouth-rinsing seems to be picking up as a habit — mouthwash penetration is growing at 35 per cent a year. More so, who could have thought rural consumers would fall for shampoos? Rural penetration of shampoos increased to 46 per cent last year, way up from 16 per cent in 2001.

Consumption patterns have evolved rapidly in the last five to ten years. The consumer is trading up to experience the new or what he hasn’t. He’s looking for products with better functionality, quality, value, and so on. What he ‘needs’ is fast getting replaced with what he ‘wants’. A new report by Booz & Company for the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), called FMCG Roadmap to 2020: The Game Changers, spells out the key growth drivers for the Indian fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry in the past ten years and identifies the big trends and factors that will impact its future.

The report estimates the FMCG sector witnessed robust year-on-year growth of approximately 11 per cent in the last decade, almost tripling in size from Rs 47,000 crore in 2000-01 to Rs 130,000 crore now (it accounts for 2.2 per cent of the country’s GDP). Growth was even faster in the past five years — almost 17 per cent annually since 2005. It identifies robust GDP growth, opening up of rural markets, increased income in rural areas, growing urbanisation along with evolving consumer lifestyles and buying behaviours as the key drivers of this growth.

The report further estimates that the FMCG industry will grow at least 12 per cent annually to become Rs 400,000 crore in size by 2020. Additionally, if some of the factors play out favourably, say, GDP grows a little faster, the government removes bottlenecks such as the goods and services tax (GST), infrastructure investments pick up, there is more efficient spending on government subsidy and so on, growth can be significantly higher. It could be as high as 17 per cent, leading to an overall industry size of Rs 620,000 crore by 2020.

Based on research on industry evolutions in other markets and discussions with industry experts and practitioners, Booz & Company has identified some important trends that will change the face of the industry over the next ten years. Some key ones related to evolution of consumer segments are as follows:

Accelerating ‘premiumisation’

he rising income of Indian consumers has accelerated the trend towards ‘premiumisation’ or up-trading. The trend can be observed prominently in the top two income groups — the rich with annual income exceeding Rs 10 lakh, and the upper middle class with annual income ranging between Rs 5 lakh and Rs 10 lakh. The reports says, the rich are willing to spend on premium products for their ‘emotional value’ and ‘exclusive feel’, and their behaviour is close to consumers in developed economies.

Evolving categories

Categories are evolving at a brisk pace in the market for the middle and lower-income segments. With their rising economic status, these consumers are shifting from need- to want-based products. For instance, consumers have moved from toothpowders to toothpastes and are now also demanding mouthwash within the same category.

The trend towards mass-customisation of products will intensify with FMCG players profiling the buyer by age, region, personal attributes, ethnic background and professional choices. Micro-segmentation will amplify the need for highly customised market research so as to capture the specific needs of the consumer segment targeted, before the actual product design phase gets underway.

Value at the bottom

Booz defines the bottom-of-the-pyramid or BoP consumers as those who earn less than Rs 2 lakh per annum per household. The group constitutes about 900 to 950 million people. While the middle class segment is largely urban, already well-served and competitive, the BoP markets are largely rural, poorly-served and uncompetitive. A lot of the basic needs of BoP consumers are yet unmet: Financial services, mobile phones & communication, housing, water, electricity and basic healthcare. And so there is untapped opportunity.